Why Negative Carryover Kills Your Affiliate Business (And How to Avoid It)

Picture this:

You refer 50 players to a casino over 6 months. They're actively gambling. Your dashboard shows $15,000 in commissions earned.

Then one player hits a $20,000 jackpot.

Suddenly, you don't just earn $0 this month. You now "owe" the casino $5,000. Your next 5 months of earnings go to paying off this "debt."

You earned $0 for 6 months despite having 50 active players.

This isn't a hypothetical. This is negative carryover, and it's one of the most predatory practices in casino affiliate marketing.

This guide will show you exactly how negative carryover works, why it's a dealbreaker for RevShare affiliates, and how to identify (and avoid) programs that use it.

What is Negative Carryover?

Negative carryover is a policy where player winnings create a "debt" that you must pay back before earning future commissions.

How It Works:

Normal RevShare (No Negative Carryover):

• Month 1: Players lose $5,000 → You earn $2,000 (40%)
• Month 2: Players win $3,000 → NGR = -$3,000 → You earn $0 (can't be negative)
• Month 3: Players lose $4,000 → You earn $1,600 (40% of $4,000)

Each month starts fresh.

RevShare WITH Negative Carryover:

• Month 1: Players lose $5,000 → You earn $2,000 (40%)
• Month 2: Players win $3,000 → NGR = -$3,000 → You "owe" $1,200 (40% of -$3,000)
• Month 3: Players lose $4,000 → You should earn $1,600...
  • But you owe $1,200 from month 2
  • So you earn: $1,600 - $1,200 = $400
  • You lost $1,200 in potential earnings

The debt carries forward until paid off.

Real Example: How Negative Carryover Destroys Your Income

Let's use real numbers over 12 months.

Setup:

• You have 20 active players
• Average monthly NGR: $3,000 (players collectively lose $3,000/month)
• Your RevShare: 40%
• Expected monthly earnings: $1,200

Scenario 1: NO Negative Carryover (Clean Program)

Month	Player NGR	Your Earnings	Cumulative
1	$3,000	$1,200	$1,200
2	$3,500	$1,400	$2,600
3	$2,800	$1,120	$3,720
4	-$8,000 (big win)	$0	$3,720
5	$3,200	$1,280	$5,000
6	$3,100	$1,240	$6,240
7	$2,900	$1,160	$7,400
8	$3,300	$1,320	$8,720
9	-$5,000 (another win)	$0	$8,720
10	$3,000	$1,200	$9,920
11	$3,400	$1,360	$11,280
12	$2,900	$1,160	$12,440

Total after 12 months: $12,440

Scenario 2: WITH Negative Carryover (Predatory Program)

Month	Player NGR	Calculation	Your Earnings	Debt Balance
1	$3,000	$1,200	$1,200	$0
2	$3,500	$1,400	$1,400	$0
3	$2,800	$1,120	$1,120	$0
4	-$8,000	-$3,200 debt	$0	-$3,200
5	$3,200	$1,280 - $3,200 debt	$0	-$1,920
6	$3,100	$1,240 - $1,920 debt	$0	-$680
7	$2,900	$1,160 - $680 debt	$480	$0
8	$3,300	$1,320	$1,320	$0
9	-$5,000	-$2,000 debt	$0	-$2,000
10	$3,000	$1,200 - $2,000 debt	$0	-$800
11	$3,400	$1,360 - $800 debt	$560	$0
12	$2,900	$1,160	$1,160	$0

Total after 12 months: $7,240

You lost $5,200 (42% of your expected income) due to negative carryover.

Months where you earned $0 despite active players: 5 out of 12 (41% of the time)

Why Negative Carryover is Fundamentally Unfair

Here's the kicker: You bear 100% of the casino's risk, but only get 40% of the casino's reward.

The Asymmetry:

When players lose (casino profits):

• Casino keeps 60%
• You get 40%

When players win (casino loses):

• Casino loses 100%
• You "owe" 40%

But here's the problem: You didn't get 100% of the profits when players were losing. You only got 40%.

So why should you absorb 40% of the losses?

The Fair Model:

No negative carryover:

• Upside: You share 40% of profits
• Downside: You earn $0 (but don't go into debt)
• Risk: Capped at $0

With negative carryover:

• Upside: You share 40% of profits (same)
• Downside: You go into debt, lose future earnings
• Risk: Unlimited

You took on MORE risk for the SAME reward. That's a terrible deal.

Hidden Dangers of Negative Carryover

Beyond the obvious loss of income, negative carryover has these hidden traps:

Trap #1: Whale Wins Wipe You Out

Scenario:

• You refer 100 small players ($50-200/month each)
• One whale deposits $50,000 and wins $80,000
• NGR: -$30,000
• Your "debt": $12,000 (40% of -$30,000)

It would take 10-12 months of normal play just to pay off that debt.

Meanwhile, your 99 other players are still active, but you're earning $0 from them.

One player's lucky streak destroyed a year of your work. This is why understanding whale economics is critical for RevShare affiliates.

Trap #2: You Can't Quit Without Settling Debt

Some contracts state: If you terminate your account, you must pay any outstanding negative balance.

Example:

• You owe $5,000 due to negative carryover
• You want to leave the program (it's terrible)
• Contract says: "Pay us $5,000 or we'll sue"

You're trapped.

Trap #3: Compound Carryover (Worst Case)

Some programs calculate carryover on a per-player basis, not aggregate.

Example:

• Player A loses $5,000 → You earn $2,000
• Player B wins $8,000 → You owe $3,200 on Player B
• Player A loses another $5,000 next month → You earn $2,000...
  • But some programs offset ALL your earnings with Player B's debt
  • So you earn $0 even though Player A is profitable

You're punished across your entire portfolio for one player's variance.

Trap #4: Programs Can Manipulate Reporting

With negative carryover, the program has incentive to:

• Report more player wins (increases your debt)
• Report fewer player losses (decreases your earnings)
• Delay reporting losses (keeps you in debt longer)

You have no way to verify if the reported NGR is accurate.

Conflict of interest: The more debt you owe, the more months they don't have to pay you.

How to Identify Negative Carryover in Contracts

Many programs hide this in legal jargon. Here's what to look for:

🚩 Red Flag Phrases:

• "Negative balances will be carried forward"
• "Deficit from one month will be deducted from future earnings"
• "Net Gaming Revenue can be negative and cumulative"
• "Commissions are calculated on a cumulative basis"
• "Negative balance must be settled before future payments"

✅ Green Flag Phrases:

• "No negative carryover"
• "Each month starts with a zero balance"
• "Negative months reset to zero"
• "Affiliates are not liable for player winnings"

Ask Directly:

Before joining any RevShare program, email the affiliate manager:

Subject: Question About Negative Carryover Policy

Body:

"Hi [Name],

Before I commit to promoting [Casino], I need to understand your negative carryover policy.

Question: If players have a winning month (negative NGR), does that create a "debt" that reduces my future commissions? Or does each month start fresh at $0?

Thanks, [Your Name]"

If they dodge the question or give a vague answer: RED FLAG.

If they say "yes, we have negative carryover": WALK AWAY.

If they say "no, each month resets": Verify it's in writing in the contract.

Programs That DON'T Have Negative Carryover

Good news: Many reputable programs explicitly reject negative carryover.

✅ No Negative Carryover (Verified):

PureOdds:

• Explicitly states "No negative carryover" in affiliate terms
• Each month starts fresh
• You never owe the casino money

Stake Partners:

• No negative carryover on standard RevShare plans
• Verified in affiliate agreement

Rollbit Affiliates:

• Monthly reset policy
• No debt carryover

❌ Programs WITH Negative Carryover (Avoid):

I won't name specific programs here, but:

• Many older, traditional programs still use it
• Some offshore programs with vague terms use it
• If they won't answer directly: assume they have it

See our full guide to red flags in casino affiliate programs.

The Math: Why Programs Use Negative Carryover

Let's be clear: Negative carryover benefits the casino, not you.

From the Casino's Perspective:

Without negative carryover:

• Players lose $100k → Pay affiliates $40k
• Players win $50k → Pay affiliates $0
• Total paid to affiliates: $40k

With negative carryover:

• Players lose $100k → Pay affiliates $40k
• Players win $50k → Affiliates now "owe" $20k
• Players lose $50k → Affiliates earn $20k, but owe $20k → Pay $0
• Total paid to affiliates: $20k

Casino saves $20k by implementing negative carryover.

Who pays for that $20k savings? You.

The Casino's Justification (Bullshit):

They'll say:

"Negative carryover is fair because it balances risk. The casino takes on risk when players win, so affiliates should share that risk."

The problem with this logic:

1. You already share the risk. When players win, you earn $0 (not 40% of winnings).
2. You don't get the upside of the casino's whole business. You only get 40% of YOUR players, not the casino's entire profit.
3. The casino diversifies risk across thousands of players. You might only have 10-50 players. One whale win destroys you, but it's a rounding error for the casino.

Translation: Negative carryover shifts risk asymmetrically onto small affiliates who can't absorb it.

What to Do If You're Stuck in a Negative Carryover Program

Step 1: Stop Sending Traffic Immediately

Don't throw good money after bad.

Every new player you refer is another chance to go into debt.

Step 2: Document Everything

• Screenshot your dashboard (earnings, debt, player activity)
• Save all emails with affiliate manager
• Download the original affiliate agreement
• Track month-by-month what you earned vs. what you "owe"

Step 3: Calculate Your True Losses

Compare:

• What you earned under negative carryover
• What you WOULD have earned without it

This is your negotiating leverage.

Step 4: Negotiate Your Exit

Email the affiliate manager:

Subject: Request to Close Account Without Negative Balance

Body:

"Hi [Name],

I've decided to close my affiliate account effective [date].

I understand there's a negative balance of $[amount]. However, I believe this policy is unfair for the following reasons:

1. I've referred [X] players who generated $[Y] in total NGR over [Z] months
2. I've only been paid $[amount], which is [%] of what I would've earned without negative carryover
3. The negative balance resulted from [one/two/three] large player wins, which I had no control over

I request that you:

• Waive the negative balance, OR
• Allow me to close my account with no financial obligation

If you cannot accommodate this, please provide the legal basis for requiring me to pay this balance.

Thanks, [Your Name]"

Many programs will waive the debt rather than deal with legal/PR issues.

Step 5: Warn Other Affiliates

Post your experience:

• Affiliate forums (AffiliateFix, AffiliateGuarddog)
• Reddit (r/Affiliatemarketing, gambling subs)
• Your own content (blog post, YouTube video)

This helps the community and puts pressure on the program to change.

Step 6: Join a Better Program

Life's too short to deal with negative carryover.

Switch to a program that respects affiliates. Check out our comparison of the best crypto casino affiliate programs to find better options.

How to Negotiate "No Negative Carryover" Into Your Deal

If you're a high-volume affiliate, you have leverage:

If You're Sending 50+ FTDs/Month:

Email template:

Subject: Custom Affiliate Terms Request

Body:

"Hi [Name],

I'm currently sending [X] FTDs/month on your program, generating approximately $[Y] in monthly NGR.

I'd like to discuss a custom deal:

• Current: 40% RevShare with negative carryover
• Proposed: 35% RevShare with NO negative carryover

I'm willing to take a lower rate in exchange for eliminating negative carryover risk.

This benefits both of us:

• I get predictable income without debt risk
• You get long-term committed traffic (I'm more likely to stay if terms are fair)

Can we discuss this?

Thanks, [Your Name]"

Why this works:

• You're offering a tradeoff (lower rate = lower risk for casino)
• You're framing it as a win-win
• You have leverage (50 FTDs/month is valuable)

Success rate: ~60% for high-volume affiliates.

The Psychological Damage of Negative Carryover

Beyond the financial hit, negative carryover messes with your mindset:

Problem #1: You Root Against Your Players

Healthy affiliate mindset:

• "I want my players to have a good experience"
• "If they win today, they'll keep playing and lose tomorrow"

Negative carryover mindset:

• "I hope my players LOSE or I won't get paid"
• "If they win, I'm screwed for months"

This is toxic. You start rooting against the people you referred.

Problem #2: You Can't Forecast Income

Without negative carryover:

• 20 active players
• Average $50 loss/month per player
• 40% RevShare
• Expected income: $400/month (predictable)

With negative carryover:

• Same 20 players
• But one might win big
• Income: Could be $0-800/month (chaos)

You can't plan, can't budget, can't scale confidently.

Problem #3: You Feel Scammed (Because You Are)

Every month you earn $0 despite active players, you feel cheated.

Because you ARE being cheated.

This leads to:

• Burnout
• Quitting affiliate marketing entirely
• Distrust of all programs (even good ones)

Negative carryover doesn't just cost you money. It costs you motivation.

Alternative Risk-Sharing Models (Fair Options)

If casinos genuinely want to "share risk," here are FAIR alternatives:

Model 1: Lower Rate, No Negative Carryover

• Standard: 40% RevShare + negative carryover
• Fair alternative: 30% RevShare + NO negative carryover

You take a pay cut in exchange for risk elimination.

This is acceptable. It's an honest tradeoff.

Model 2: Tiered Reset

• Month 1: Players win → You earn $0
• Month 2: Players lose $2,000 → You earn 20% (not 40%) to "recover" casino's loss
• Month 3: If casino is "made whole," you return to 40%

Still not great, but better than infinite debt carryover.

Model 3: Cap the Carryover

• Maximum carryover: 1 month
• Example: Players win $10k in Month 1 → You owe $4k
• But in Month 2, you only owe UP TO $4k (it doesn't keep growing)

At least you can see the light at the end of the tunnel.

Model 4: CPA Hybrid (Safest)

Just avoid RevShare entirely if the program has negative carryover.

Take CPA or a hybrid model instead.

You give up long-term passive income, but you also eliminate the risk.

Conclusion: Negative Carryover is a Dealbreaker

Let's be blunt: Any program with negative carryover is not worth your time.

No matter how good the commission rate looks (50%! 60%!), if they have negative carryover, you're getting screwed.

Here's your action plan:

Before Joining ANY RevShare Program:

1. ✅ Read the affiliate agreement (search for "carryover," "negative," "deficit")
2. ✅ Email the affiliate manager directly and ask
3. ✅ Get confirmation in writing ("No negative carryover")
4. ✅ Verify it's stated in the public terms (not just a verbal promise)

Red Flags to Walk Away:

• 🚩 Won't answer the question directly
• 🚩 Says "it's standard industry practice" (it's not)
• 🚩 Vague terms like "balances may carry over"
• 🚩 No public terms available

Programs to Consider:

✅ PureOdds: Explicitly no negative carryover, 50% RevShare, transparent terms ✅ Stake Partners: No negative carryover, reputable ✅ Rollbit: Monthly reset, clear terms

If You're Currently in a Negative Carryover Program:

1. Stop sending traffic
2. Document everything
3. Negotiate your exit
4. Switch to a better program
5. Warn other affiliates

Life's too short to work for free. Also make sure you understand payment terms before committing to any program.

If you're driving quality traffic, you deserve to be paid for it—every month, not just the months when players happen to lose.

Promote programs that respect affiliates.

Join the PureOdds affiliate program — No negative carryover policy explicitly stated in our terms. 50% RevShare, 1% house edge for better player retention, monthly payouts, and transparent reporting. We don't profit by screwing over our affiliates.

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Quick Reference: Negative Carryover FAQs

Q: Is negative carryover illegal? A: No, but it's unethical. It's legal as long as it's disclosed in the contract.

Q: How common is negative carryover? A: Less common than it used to be (~30% of programs have it). But still worth checking.

Q: Can I negotiate it out of my contract? A: Yes, if you have leverage (high volume, quality traffic). See negotiation section above.

Q: What if I already owe money due to negative carryover? A: Negotiate a waiver when closing your account. Many programs will agree rather than chase small debts.

Q: Should I ever accept negative carryover? A: No. Even with a higher rate (50% vs. 40%), it's not worth the risk.

See complete casino affiliate glossary.