Attribution Modeling for Casino Affiliates: Understanding Multi-Touch Journeys

A player reads your review, leaves, searches again a week later, clicks a different article, and finally signs up.

Which touchpoint gets credit? Most affiliate tracking uses "last click"—whoever got the final click wins. But is that fair or accurate?

Attribution modeling examines how different touchpoints contribute to conversions.

For basics, see our beginner's guide to casino affiliate marketing.

The Attribution Problem

Real User Journeys

Players rarely convert immediately:

1. Search "best crypto casino"
2. Read comparison article (your site)
3. Leave without converting
4. Two days later, search "Stake review"
5. Read your Stake review
6. Still don't convert
7. See TikTok video about crypto gambling
8. Return directly to your site
9. Click affiliate link, sign up

Which of your touchpoints mattered? All of them? Just the last one?

Why It Matters

Attribution affects decisions:

• Which content to invest in
• Which channels to prioritize
• How to allocate budget
• What's actually working

Wrong attribution leads to wrong decisions.

Attribution Models

Last-Click (Default)

Credit goes to the last touchpoint before conversion.

How it works: Player's final click before signup gets 100% credit.

Pros: Simple, matches most affiliate program tracking.

Cons: Ignores all touchpoints that built awareness and interest.

First-Click

Credit goes to the first touchpoint.

How it works: Whatever first brought them to your site gets full credit.

Pros: Values discovery and awareness.

Cons: Ignores everything that happened after first contact.

Linear Attribution

Credit distributed equally across all touchpoints.

How it works: Five touchpoints? Each gets 20%.

Pros: Acknowledges entire journey.

Cons: Values all touchpoints equally, which isn't realistic.

Time-Decay

Credit weighted toward touches closer to conversion.

How it works: Recent touchpoints get more credit; earlier touches get less.

Pros: Balances awareness and conversion influence.

Cons: May undervalue crucial early touches.

Position-Based (U-Shaped)

Heavy weight to first and last, lighter to middle.

How it works: 40% to first touch, 40% to last, 20% split among middle.

Pros: Values discovery and conversion moments.

Cons: May undervalue important middle touches.

Data-Driven

Machine learning determines credit based on actual patterns.

How it works: Algorithms analyze which touchpoints predict conversion.

Pros: Based on your actual data.

Cons: Requires significant data volume; black box.

Affiliate Program Limitations

Last-Click Reality

Most affiliate programs only track last-click:

• Cookie tracks the final referral
• That affiliate gets commission
• Journey history isn't visible

You don't control program attribution. You can only understand your own site's role.

Internal vs External Attribution

What you can track: How users navigate your site before clicking out.

What you can't track: Their full journey across the web, what influenced them before arriving.

Practical Focus

For affiliates, attribution modeling is about:

• Understanding your content's role in journeys
• Optimizing your site's contribution
• Better interpreting your analytics

Not about changing how programs pay.

Implementing Internal Attribution

Google Analytics 4

GA4 offers attribution insights:

• Model comparison tool
• Data-driven attribution (requires sufficient conversions)
• Conversion path analysis

Set up conversion tracking for affiliate clicks, then analyze paths.

Custom Tracking

Build your own attribution view:

• Tag all internal links with content identifiers
• Track page sequences before affiliate clicks
• Analyze common paths

More work but more control. Proper UTM tracking is essential for building custom attribution.

Session vs User Attribution

Session attribution: Which pages led to conversion in this session.

User attribution: All pages this user visited across multiple sessions before converting.

Both provide different insights.

Analyzing Conversion Paths

Path Length

How many touches before conversion?

Short paths (1-2 pages): Direct intent, high-converting traffic.

Long paths (5+ pages): Research behavior, comparison shopping.

Different content serves different path stages. Understanding click-to-FTD timing helps you set expectations for each path type.

Common Sequences

What paths do converters typically take?

Example patterns:

• Homepage → Review → Conversion
• Comparison → Review → Review → Conversion
• Guide → Comparison → Review → Conversion

Understand what sequences work.

Assist Pages

Which pages appear in journeys but aren't final conversion pages?

Example: Your "How to Choose a Casino" guide appears in many journeys but rarely as the last page before conversion.

Assist pages are valuable even without direct conversions.

Making Attribution Actionable

Valuing Awareness Content

Pure last-click devalues:

• Educational guides
• How-to content
• Broad comparison pages

These pages introduce players who convert later on other pages. Multi-touch attribution gives them credit.

Investing Appropriately

If a page assists 100 conversions but directly converts only 10, last-click says invest less. Multi-touch says it's valuable.

Make investment decisions based on full journey contribution.

Content Strategy

Different content serves different journey stages:

Discovery: Broad guides, beginner content Consideration: Comparisons, detailed reviews Decision: Specific reviews, CTAs

Each stage needs investment.

Channel Evaluation

Compare channels by journey role:

• SEO might bring first touches
• Email might nurture
• Direct might convert

Evaluate channels by their contribution, not just conversions. Track cohorts by channel to see long-term value differences.

Practical Application

Simple Path Analysis

Without sophisticated tools:

1. Export GA conversion path data
2. Categorize pages by type (guide, review, comparison)
3. Count how often each type appears in paths
4. Compare to direct conversions

This reveals assist value.

Content Categorization

Group content by journey role:

Top of funnel: Awareness, education, broad topics Middle of funnel: Comparison, consideration Bottom of funnel: Reviews, decision support

Track how each category contributes.

Conversion Triggers

What finally drives conversion?

Analyze last pages before clicks:

• Which reviews convert best?
• What content closes the deal?
• Where should you send traffic?

Challenges and Limitations

Cross-Device

Users switch devices. Desktop research, mobile conversion—tracking breaks.

Partial solution: GA4's cross-device reporting (requires user ID tracking or Google signals).

Privacy and Cookies

Cookie blocking, privacy browsers, and consent requirements limit tracking:

• Shorter attribution windows
• Missing touchpoints
• Incomplete journeys

Accept some data loss.

External Influences

You can't track:

• Other sites they visited
• Conversations with friends
• Social media influence
• External research

Your attribution is always partial.

Sample Size

Meaningful attribution requires volume:

• Not enough conversions = unreliable patterns
• Seasonal variation complicates analysis
• Edge cases distort small samples

Focus on patterns, not individual journeys.

Attribution for Different Scales

Small Sites

With limited data:

• Use last-click primarily
• Watch session paths qualitatively
• Focus on direct conversion optimization

Medium Sites

With moderate volume:

• Compare 2-3 attribution models
• Identify assist content
• Test investing in different journey stages

Large Sites

With substantial data:

• Implement data-driven attribution
• Sophisticated path analysis
• Predictive modeling

Scale your approach to your data.

For programs like PureOdds, understanding attribution helps optimize which content types drive their 50% RevShare conversions most effectively.

Action Items

Set up conversion tracking for affiliate clicks in your analytics. Our analytics tools guide covers setup recommendations.

Analyze conversion paths to understand common journeys.

Compare models to see how attribution changes value perception.

Value assist content beyond last-click conversions.

Make informed investments based on full journey contribution.

---

Attribution is inherently imperfect. Focus on directional insights rather than precise accuracy. Better rough understanding beats precise ignorance.